Context
The Judeo-christian tradition in Western cultures refers to a quote from Genesis as a command to procreate extensively:
"be fruitful and multiply, and fill the earth, and subdue it."
In medieval Europe, however, famine, war and disease prevented rapid population growth. Malthus saw these problems as population "checks", as did the Christian author Tertullian. Some classical Greek thinkers equated a large population with power, but Aristotle expressed concern over a big population, not because of food shortages, but due to governance.
Between 500 and 1450 Europe's population roughly doubled. However, in the early modern age this changed. Better agriculture and longer periods of political stability resulted in the rapid growth of the population. Colonisation by Europeans meant people could leave Europe for the Americas where they forced out local populatons and practised intensive agriculture. War and disease still kept growth in check, but less so: the Great Plague in London (1665–66) killed around 100,000 people, whereas the Black Death of 1348 had wiped out two million souls in England alone.
This historic improvement encouraged 18th-century philosophers to suggest that Europe was entering an age of continuous development. Rousseau was optimistic about humanity's future and wrote that we had evolved from a 'state of nature' to a state of 'social institutions' and that beyond lay a future of peace and equality. William Godwin also penned an ideal utopia when humanity would no longer need political institutions. Overpopulation was seen as a distant threat of thousands of years. He advocated lowering sex drive to lower reproduction and stabilise population. However, Malthus thought Rousseau and Godwin's predictions implausible since they were founded on radical changes of human nature.
Malthus' book was published in 1798 when two revolutions marked the end of the 18th century. The American war of independence (1775–83) ended British colonial power in North America, but the population was still rising through immigration. The French Revolution (1789-1799) led to a debate on forms of government throughout Europe. Malthus saw these revolutions as natural experiments in the growth of populations. The US had many natural resources and a small population; France had a dense population and a decade of political and economic chaos. One of the author's aims in the book is to analyse the different population trends in the US, Britain and Europe.
The Industrial Revolution was also having an effect on population distribution in Europe. Traditional crafts were industrialised and centralised in factory towns to which workers flocked creating overcrowded cities. Malthus saw the urban unsanitary conditions as increasing health risks and the decline of agriculture in favour of manufacturing as a threat to the food supply.
Religious toleration opened the way for diverse worship practices within Protestant religious communities. Catholicism was frowned upon, but atheism and agnosticism were openly tolerated. Under this religious tolerance Malthus offered his personal views on God's plan and the meaning of human suffering.
Summary
Preface
Malthus states that his Essay is a reply to the utopian ideas of his contemporaries, particular William Godwin and the Marquis de Condorcet. He affirms that these writers underestimated the impact of population on humanity's problems.
Chapters 1–2
Malthus presents his problem: an increase in food production will lead to an increase in population. This means that there will always be a segment of the population who will not have enough food, some not even enough to survive. This vicious circle comes about because when food is abundant populations tend to grow exponentially , but the food supply only increases arithmetically, at a maximum constant rate.
Chapters 3–5
To support his claim the author reviews the histories of nomads and 'savage' populations, then the 'civilised' ones. He found that in all cases more food production led to more mouths to feed. However, there are two "checks" which maintain populations lower. Preventative checks are when people decide not to start families, because of expense, for instance. Positive checks include famine, disease and war, which affect the poor more.
Chapters 6–9
The US colonies demonstrated the higher limits to population growth where it doubled every 15 to 25 years. Meanwhile in Europe the population cycle of increase and decline, due to famine, war and disease, was ongoing.
Malthus views epidemics as cyclical, too. They happen when populations are outgrow the food supply, but then are followed by quick regrowth. Density and unwholesome food lead to widespread disease and population decline. These are historical facts, according to the author.
Chapters 10–15
Malthus dedicates several chapters to responding to Godwin's Enquiry Concerning Political Justice (1793) which referred to future population growth trends. His optimistic suggestion was a future where humanity acquired political and economical stability with abundant resources. Improvements included a decline in birth rates due to less sexual passion. Healthier living standards would also increase longevity. Malthus responded in a detailed criticism of Godwin's predictions which he finds not proven or unrealistic.
Chapters 16–17
The author deals with the concept of wealth proposed by 18th. century economists. He finds that what is defined as 'wealth' has no result in the masses. Adam Smith's definition of the nation's wealth, for instance, does not necessarily percolate through to the working classes or the poverty stricken.
Chapters 18–19
In the last two chapters Malthus tries to answer the problem of reconciling a loving Creator with the seemingly harsh population laws. His solution is that God has created the population problem to benefit mankind. The tensions between food supply and population growth force humans to work hard to obtain life's necessities. This also compels people to develop their spirits and minds. He then argues that the sorrows of life induced by poverty and malnutrition give people the opportunity to practise the virtue of compassion and ends on an optimistic note announcing:
"Evil exists in the world, not to create despair, but activity."
Themes
The Malthusian Trap
The vicious circle that Malthus predicted refers to the increase of food production due to agricultural advances which then leads to a population explosion. This overpopulation results in food shortages since the new population occupies agricultural land formerly used for growing crops. Malthus went on to theorise that despite technological advances and resulting income gains, this progress would not be achieved because of population growth and consequent famine and disease.
Morality
The Essay reflects on the social morality of the Poor Laws which redistributed taxes to the poor. Malthus argues that this apparent benevolence will be lost to a rise in food prices and housing, but will encourage the poor to have more children knowing that the State will help them out. Instead he proposed agricultural reform to increase food and avoid hunger. In this preindustrial thinking he added that the poor would be more humanely employed in the fields than the workhouses.
The author describes humanity's general moral development as circumstantial. He uses the image of a repeated rolling of dice to illustrate that in a social context some people will turn out virtuous and some wicked, despite the changing environment. Contrary to the Christian moral notion of the fallen state of mankind Malthus views the wicked as victims of circumstances and poor choices.
Criticisms of the Malthusian Theory of Population
Malthus' predictions on the vicious circle of the food-population binary have not been supported by history. In Western Europe technological advances have ensured that food supply and population growth are equally assured. His argument on the food supply problem was based on the low availability of land, but international commerce nowadays enables exchange of services and products for food. He did not foresee that industrial production would surpass the agricultural economy prevalent in 1798. Neither did he provide calculations for food growth or rates of population increase.
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